Economic Observer reporter Chen Shan In 2023,热门新闻 the price of gold has skyrocketed all the way, reaching a new high.Affected by many factors such as the US dollar, the US debt, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the European and American banking crisis, and geopolitics, the price of gold fluctuated fiercely, but the high -level shock was basically maintained throughout the year.As of 18:00 on December 27, 2023, the price of gold in London was hovering around $ 2068/ounce, and it rose about 13.5%during the year.The lowest price during the year appeared at US $ 1804.5/ounce on February 28, with a maximum of $ 2081.82/ounce on May 4.In a high interest rate environment, gold performed unique, winning commodities, bonds and most stock markets.
In 2023, central banks from various countries became strong buyers of gold.Like many investors, in the past two years, central banks of various countries have increasingly used gold as an inflation hedging tool.As of the third quarter of 2023, the central banks of various countries have purchased a total of 800 tons of gold during the year, an increase of 14%compared with the same period of the previous year.
Entering 2024, the main line logic of the trading line of the precious metal market will be converted from the annual transaction interest rate hike period of 2023 to a clearer expected interest rate reduction cycle.When will the start of interest rate cuts start and the rhythm of interest rate cuts will affect the phased performance of gold.
Many views believe that the gold market in 2024 will be supported by risk factors such as US interest rate cuts, geopolitics and economic recession.Some analysts are even due to concerns about the increase in economic recession next year. They believe that the price of gold in 2024 is expected to brush a record high, and even attack 2,500 US dollars/ounce, that is, at least 20%of the rise space.
On the whole, the overall trend of global economic recession, the rise in the demand for gold purchase of the central bank around the world, and the trend of the global "de -US dollar" make gold is expected to become a new round of pricing anchor. These factors will continue to give the price of gold prices.But at the same time, the price of gold is still facing the Fed's monetary policy less than expected, the bilateral risk of the US economic recession or soft landing, and the disturbance of geopolitical risks.This means that gold may be difficult to get out of large -scale uplink markets, but there are no shortage of opportunities.
At present, the market is expected to continue to decline in the US economic growth in 2024, and the Fed's monetary policy will turn to loose.The actual yield of the US debt still has a large downlink space, which will promote the rise in the rise of gold prices.However, as the uncertainties of inflation increase, the Fed's internal views will disagree, and this difference may dilute the market's expectations for rapid interest rate cuts.It is true that the current market is too optimistic about the Federal Reserve interest rate cut. If the US economy will show toughness and inflation and stickiness after the first quarter of next year, the expected risk of revising interest rate cuts will be faced.Formation.
Although interest rate cuts have a certain supporting effect on the price of gold, the price of gold is difficult to rise when the expected weakening is weakened.In addition, the continuous fermentation of geopolitical issues will increase the demand for hedging, but from another perspective, the expansion of the incident and the extension of the time will bring about the rise in global prices.EssenceAs a result, the possibility of a short -term gold price will be further reduced.
In addition, to a certain extent, the interest rate reduction gives the price of gold prices while also reducing its opportunity income.First of all, the increase in gold prices has reflected the benefits brought by some interest rate cuts in advance, which means that the space for gold prices may be limited; second, the consistency of the market is expected to be too strong, which may limit the height of the rise in gold prices; in the endAs interest rates decreased from high, the attraction of bond investment gradually increased.Both bonds and gold are assets of hedging, so some gold's investment funds may be diverted to the bond market.Therefore, investors need to pay attention to the impact of these factors on future gold prices.
In summary, the gold trend of gold in 2024 may fluctuate, and the price fluctuations will fluctuate with the expectations of interest rate cuts and the time and amplitude of interest rate cuts. It is a game between expected differences and fundamentals.
For gold investment, in the case of geopolitical instability, gold can be used as a means of wealth preservation. In addition, gold can also help investors to resist the impact of inflation and high interest rates.However, it should be noted that despite the recent rise in gold, it usually cannot provide generous returns or as a good short -term investment.Because gold is a medium and long -term asset, its price is affected by various factors, including market supply and demand, monetary policy, geopolitics, etc.