Gold "Cyclonus"!Continue to sprint new high in 2024?Institutional tip: Short -term risk is accumulating

2024-02-22 14:53:53 frontline information

Thefrontline information continued rising gold assets, when the curtain of 2023, there was significant prediction differences.Looking at the trend of gold prices throughout the year, there was a "V" trend in November, and it still touched US $ 2146.79 in early December, setting a record high. As of now, it is still above $ 2,000, and it has continued to play a risk aversion.

In the 2024 gold asset outlook, the institution pointed out that risk aversion still has a decline in the US dollar and the global central bank's demand is strong, and the price of gold may still support.However, some agencies believe that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts have recently boosted the price of gold, but the latter has been checked more changes.From the perspective of the comparison between the US debt yield and the US dollar index, the short -term marginal risk of gold assets is accumulating, and the current position chase is no longer appropriate.

Fund managers specifically mentioned that from December 15th to January 15 of the following year, the gold market has a high probability that the gold market has a rising pattern, mainly to speculate in the commodity fund adjustment and the Chinese Spring Festival gold consumption."But because the golden increase in the whole year of 2023 is not small, the fund adjustment may be more motivated. China's retail gold tide has also passed. It is expected that it is difficult to exceed the peak of sales in the third quarter at the end of the year."

Continue to play a role of hedging, Gold ETF generally has two digits of income

According to Wind data, as of December 30, Beijing time, London's current price is about $ 2062/ounce.On December 4th, the price of gold was once touched at $ 2146.79. Although it fell below the $ 2,000 mark again on December 8, it soon stood at $ 2,000 and then stabilized.Looking back at 2023, the price of gold continued to rise from the lowest $ 1804.5, once reached a historical high of US $ 2146.79, becoming one of the most shiny assets in the global market during the year.

The China Merchants Fund analyzed in the latest "2024 Annual Investment Strategy Report" that the price of gold prices in the first half of 2023 promoted the rise in risk aversion, and the second half of the year was affected by the Fed's policy and market expectations.Investment Fund believes that throughout the year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes entered the end and the continuous adjustment of the market's expected expectations of interest rate hikes dominated the price direction of precious metals.

Specifically, China Merchants Fund stated that in the first half of the year, the European and American banking industry storms, debt limit crisis and global geopolitical turbulence pushed the golden demand for gold, so that the whole year of the gold price center was lifted;The "Eagle School" speech broke the trend of precious metals, which led to falling from the high level in early May and entering the wide shock range.In October, geopolitical conflicts helped market risk aversion. Gold prices began to enter the unilateral interval because of their risk shelter.Under the double influence of market risk aversion and the market's expected point on the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut cycle, the market’ s price showed a “V” trend in November in November.

According to Wind, as of December 30, Hua'an Fund, Boshi Fund, Cathay Fund, Huitianfu Fund, Yifangda Fund, Huaxia Fund, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund and other public offering products (including Shanghai Gold ETF) were generally realized during the year.Number of income.

Ai Xiaojun, the manager of Cathay Pacific Gold Fund, believes that global geopolitics are complex, and the geopolitical crisis has become the greatest uncertainty that affects the global political economy.After the Fed's policy is approaching interest rate cuts and the pressure of multi -heading positions, international gold prices are expected to continue to strengthen.In the middle and long term, the prospect of the global economic recovery is still uncertain, and gold may continue to play a risk aversion in the asset portfolio.

Three aspects to grasp the main contradictions of gold prices

Although the price rises and falls at a glance, the pricing of gold assets involves multiple factors.When the price trend predicts, agencies often need to focus on micro vision.For example, Yingmi Fund pointed out in the latest release of the "2024 Public Fund asset Allocation Report" that given the scale distribution of domestic commodity funds, considering the complexity of gold pricing, trying to grasp the core contradictions of gold from the following three aspects:

The first is Shanghai Jin and London Jin comparison.The Yingmi Fund discovered the price comparison of the spot price of London Gold with Shanghai Gold. In the long run, the trend of the two is highly related but there is a departure.However, if the London Gold is adjusted through the exchange rate, the long -term trend is height.Yingmi Fund believes that it can analyze the trend of gold based on the two dimensions of London and Shanghai Gold at the same time.

In view of the past analysis of securities firms, the actual interest rate and gold price are negatively related.From the perspective of Shanghai Gold, China's actual interest rate should be negatively related to the price of gold; from the perspective of London Gold (CNY), the price of gold should be positively related to the exchange rate and a negative correlation with the actual interest rate of the United States.Based on this, Yingmi Fund further analyzed the two perspectives of the actual interest rate law and the Sino -US interest spread law.

The second is the actual interest rate method.According to the past analysis of securities firms, based on the calculation of variables such as inflation and nominal interest rates, Shanghai Jinying has shown a negative correlation between the actual interest rates. However, in recent years, the actual interest rate and the original model of the gold price have failed.Suppose the effectiveness of the original model is unchanged. In the current economic environment, we expect the actual interest rate or there is a downlink space. Whether it is the nominal interest rate downward or the two paths of inflation next yearThe price of gold next year will still exist.

Third, the China -US spread method.Based on the Ten -year Treasury spread between China and the United States, the extreme value of the Treasury spread between the Treasury bonds has been more related to the London Gold (CNY) in 2015.From the point of view of the current time, the US -China debt is more than 2.26%on October 19 this year.Trends upward.

The current position chase is no longer appropriate?

Based on the above analysis, Yingmi Fund believes that the overall optimism of the Gold Price Research Institute next year's Gold Price Research Institute can consider choosing an intervention.The China Merchants Fund believes that the risk aversion still has a decline cycle of the US dollar, and the gold section may be supported.

The investment promotion fund specifically analyzed that as the economic downward pressure increases inflation alleviation, the Fed may begin to cut interest rates in the middle of next year, thereby guiding the acceleration of the nominal interest rate and actual interest rate of U.S. bonds.Although from the perspective of stabilizing the actual interest rate in the United States, the driving force for the upward price of gold is not strong, after the US interest rate cut, the probability will cause the US dollar to enter a new downward cycle and then promote the rise in gold prices.The historical data of the restart, from July 2007 to November 2008 and July 2019 to March 2020, they experienced two rounds of interest rate cuts, and the price of gold remained strong during the above period.

In addition, China Merchants Fund also mentioned that the latest data of the World Gold Association shows that the central bank's demand for the central bank has reached 800 tons from early 2023, setting the latest record of the association statistics.The central banks of various countries may continue to maintain a strong demand for purchasing funds within the rest of this year, indicating that the total demand for central banks in 2024 is expected to remain strong.

In terms of the trend of gold stocks, the ICBC Credit Suisse Fund believes that recently, gold stocks have followed the overall decline in A shares, but they have not followed the gold price to recover or rise, and the hedging effect of gold stocks has declined.The continuous rise in the price of gold in the future may help reverse the current dilemma.With the gradual stability of gold stocks, the outflow of funds has eased, the market pays more attention to the fundamental aspect, and the performance of the gold stocks is released or given higher weight.

However, some institutions have relatively cautious predictions. This is the phenomenon that rarely encountered in 2023 where gold assets continued to rise.

The Noon Fund believes that the signs of the US economic slowdown in the first half of 2024 may be more obvious. The continuous occurrence of geopolitical risks may increase the volatility of the financial market compared with the previous period.Rest -cutting interpretation and fluctuating upward trend.The risk point may be behind the market expectations when the Fed starts the interest rate cut."Recently, the market has promoted the Federal Reserve interest rate cut transactions to the gold price significantly, but the latter has been checked more than expected. It is recommended that investors actively pay attention to the gold price trend."

Wang Xiang, the fund manager of the Boshi Fund, analyzed that last week (December 18th to 22nd), the international gold market continued to move up in the context of the core PCE, but from the comparison relationship between the US debt yield and the US dollar indexThe short -term marginal risk of gold assets is accumulating.

"During the period of the US dollar index and the 10 -year US debt yields continued to decline, but the performance of gold prices declined to this. PCE data was not as expected. Although it once guided the market to relax expectations and boosted gold performance, it failed to keep the history of historyThe impact on the platform on the platform will converge in the short term in the short term. "Wang Xiang said that from the historical performance, the gold market will have a high probability of the rise in the gold market from December 15th to January 15 of each year.Commodity fund adjustment and Chinese Spring Festival gold consumption.