TheEmergencies Federal Reserve Conference minutes suppressed the expectations of pigeons, and the probability of raising interest rate cuts in March after non -agricultural decreased to 50%!The Red Sea crisis has not continued to boost oil prices?The outlook of a large oil field has caused concerns about supply ... What stimulus do you miss this week?
Spot gold rose 13%in 2023, the best annual performance since 2020.In the first trading week of 2024, the price of gold shook down.Thanks to the Federal Reserve and data suppressing pigeons' interest cutting expectations, the US dollar index is upward.After the announcement of non -agricultural data, the US dollar soared to 103.107 in a week, but then fell.Spot gold once rose to 2024.39 US dollars/ounce.
In terms of international crude oil, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil fluctuate greatly in the first week of the New Year.Although concerns about the upgrading of the Red Sea situation still exist, because the record output of countries outside OPEC may lead to excess market supply, the oil market's losses still occupy the upper hand, but the full suspension of Libyan oil field has exacerbated people's concerns about global oil supply.As of press time, WTI crude oil touches up to $ 74.05/barrel, and Brent crude oil has a maximum of $ 79.33.
In terms of non -US currency, the euro, British pounds, yen, New Yuan, Australian dollar, etc. are suppressed by the strong trend of the US dollar.In addition, because the market is worried about whether the spot ETF can be launched, Bitcoin plummeted by more than 9%to 40714.30 US dollars/miles on Wednesday.EssenceThe follow -up market has picked up.
One week's discipline
1. Federal Reserve Conference Route to curb the expectations of pigeons
According to the FOMC meeting announced on January 4th, the policy maker agreed last month that it is appropriate to maintain a restricted position for "within a period of time". At the same time, it is recognized that it may have been at the peak of interest rates and will start to cut interest rates in 2024.
Officials reiterated that "before inflation continues to decline, it is appropriate to maintain a restricted position for a period of time."Some officials said that interest rates may stay longer than expected, and even further interest rate hikes may be appropriate.
The minutes of the meeting showed that the optimism of the participants in the inflation path increased, and pointed out that "the progress is obvious". If this trend continues, they are willing to cut interest rates in 2024, but it does not mean that the loose policy may be as expected by futures traders.That's the earliest as in March, just acknowledging the economic prediction abstract (SEP) showed that the interest rate reduction will be reduced by the end of 2024.
The minutes also showed that the participants discussed when they changed the rhythm of the shrinkage.Participants suggested that it is best to discuss the technical factors that slow down the speed of shrinkage before making a decision, so that the public can propose the matter in advance.Some analysts predict that the Fed may stop shrinking the table before the first interest rate cut.
This week traders have reduced bets on the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and it is expected that the cumulative interest rate reduction will not exceed 150 basis points this year.Richmond Fed Chairman Balkin said that the US economy is more likely to achieve soft landing, and the possibility of further interest rate hikes "still exist."
Although the Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNOW model reduced the expected GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 from 2.3%to 2.0%, the performance of the US employment market was still dazzling.This week's small "non -agricultural" ADP employment number recorded 164,000 people, a new high in August 2023, and salary growth has slowed down.ADP chief economist believes that the report proves that the risk of wage-price spiral rising has almost disappeared.
According to the employment report data on Friday, the employment growth of the United States accelerated in December last year and the increase in wages exceeded expectations, which reduced the possibility of the Federal Reserve in March.The recording of non -agricultural employment has increased by 216,000, exceeding market expectations, which is a new high in September 2023. The U.S. unemployment rate in December was 3.7%, which was consistent with last month.The average hourly salary growth rate also exceeded expectations, an increase of 0.4%over the previous month.However, the labor participation rate fell to 62.5%, the lowest level since February last year.
After the non -agricultural employment data was announced, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in the market for the exchange market was 50%.
In addition, according to a statement from San Louis Fed, Alberto G. Musalem will start the new chairman of the region on April 2.His predecessor Brad was an official of the Federal Reserve.Mussiim has served as chief investor at the Quantitative Hedie Fund, and has also served as the executive vice chairman and senior consultant of the Fed in New York.He has not yet learned his position in monetary policy, and he will obtain voting rights in 2025.
2. Middle East situation: Red Sea crisis, Iranian serial explosion
The situation in the Middle East continued to heat up this week, the Red Sea crisis continued to ferment, and a serial explosion in Iran had a series of risk aversion emotions.The increase is obvious.
Since the end of November, Iran's support of the Yamen Hassy Milks has increased its attack on the Red Sea merchant ships, and the attack has continued to upgrade in the past week.Last weekend, the U.S. Navy warships fired the helicopter to repel the attack on the armed member against the ship of Matsky.The shipping company once again suspended all cargo transportation through the region, and said that five merchant ships stranded in the Red Sea had four detours.
Britain and the United States issued the ultimate rural against Yemenhota armed forces, planning to launch sea and air strikes.The U.S. Navy said that the hostess's attacks did not show signs of weakening, and their operations in the Red Sea were completely defensive.The Horse Armed Forces decided to respond to the new warnings and threats of the United States and Western allies, and sent a unmanned boat full of explosives to destroy the international channel of the Red Sea again.
In addition, on Wednesday, at least 103 people were killed and 188 people were injured in the explosion near the Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani.This is one of the most fatal attacks in Iranian history.According to the news on January 4, local time of the Iranian TV station, the extreme organization "Islamic State" announced the responsibility of the IChman explosion.
In terms of military conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hamas Vice Chairman Salich Aroli was killed by Israel in a Bullot's explosion, causing new concerns about the upgrading of the Gaza area.Lebanon's leader of the Lord Nasrura delivered a television speech on January 3, pointing out that Israel must be punished and warned Israel not to attack Lebanon, otherwise the Battle of the Allah will have no restrictions or rules.
3. The oil market is unfavorable?OPEC re -show unity
The oil market is not at ease.Although the concerns about the upgrading of the Red Sea situation still exist, the international crude oil price opened high in the first trading day in 2024, but due to the record output of countries outside OPEC, the market supply may lead to excess market supply.Later, due to the full suspension of Libya oil fields, it exacerbated people's concerns about the global oil supply. The international crude oil has closed for the first time in the past five days, and has been separated from two weeks.
OPEC+is reported to hold an online meeting in early February to evaluate the oil market.The organization began a new round of production reduction this month, trying to avoid excess global supply in the first quarter and defend crude oil prices.
In the context of controversy around the output quota, Angola announced his withdrawal from OPEC, causing the market to guess and question its ability to boost oil prices.On January 3, OPEC issued a statement on the official website that OPEC and non -OPEC oil -producing countries reiterated their commitments to unite, sufficient cohesion and market stability.
More importantly, Libya may close its largest oil field.It is reported on Tuesday that the salara oil field located in the southwest of the country has originally reduced production due to protests and may now have to stop production.Recently, the daily output of crude oil in the country's salara oil field is about 300,000 barrels.People are also worried that protests may spread to EL Feel oil fields with a nearby daily output of 60,000 barrels.
This week, the US Department of Energy also announced the bidding for 3 million barrels of crude oil, which will be used in April 2024 to recover strategic oil reserve (SPR).At the same time, the United States has become the world's largest liquefied natural gas exporter for the first time.
4. The total US Treasury bonds reached 34 trillion US dollars for the first time
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Finance, as of last Friday afternoon, the total amount of non -public debt increased from US $ 33911 to US $ 3.401 billion on Thursday.
As the scale of US Treasury bonds reaches a record high, the federal government is facing another imminent crisis of closing.Members of Congress will return to Washington next week to resolve government expenditure issues left in September last year on January 19th and February 2nd.
5. The Japanese earthquake caused the cooling water overflow of nuclear power plants
At around 16:10 on January 1st, an earthquake in the Nengari area in Shichuan Prefecture, Japan, the Japanese Meteorological Agency determined that the earthquake level was 7.6.Tsunami warnings were released almost the entire West Coast in Japan.The latest news shows that the earthquake has killed 84 people and 179 people lost contact.
Tokyo Electric Power Company released news that the earthquake caused cooling water overflowing the fuel tank of the Kashizaki Nuclea Nuclear Power Station in Niigata Prefecture.It is reported that no water leakage was found outside the nuclear reactor building.
6. Shanghai Adjustment of Provident Fund Personal Housing Loan Policy
On January 2nd, Shanghai adjusted the personal housing loan policy of housing provident fund in the city.For those who are identified as the second improved housing, the minimum down payment ratio is 50%; for the identification as the second improved housing, and the housing purchased by the loan is located in the Lingang New Trinity District of China (Shanghai) Pilotive Trade Zone, Jiading, Jiading, and Jiading, and Jiading,Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Baoshan, and Jinshan are all regions. The minimum down payment ratio is 40%.This notice will be implemented from January 3, 2024.
Recently, the news of a "quantitative trading of the futures market" was spread in the industry. In this regard, many head quantitative private equity people revealed that the news is not true. At presentEssenceIt is worth noting that a number of private equity people said that the future futures market has indeed undergone new changes, that is, the transfer of futures companies has not been received in the first week of the New Year, but whether the transfer will be determined in the future, and the relevant situation needs to be observed.If the futures company returns the commission to cancel, the high -frequency transaction of the futures market may be affected to some extent.
8. Baidu terminate $ 3.6 billion to acquire YY live broadcast
Baidu (09888.HK) The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that on January 1, 2024, a related company Moon SPV Limited, a company's related company, terminated the Moon SPV Limited, Baidu and Huanju Group and other related parties.The "Shares Purchase Agreement", which was established and revised or supplemented in the future on November 16.The company will seek the next arrangement after discussing with Huanju Group after the termination of the shares' purchase agreement.According to Jiupai Finance and other reports, the acquisition was terminated because it was not approved by the relevant regulatory authorities.
9. Musk responded to BYD sales surpass Tesla
BYD Automobile's cumulative sales in 2023 increased by 62.3%year -on -year. In the fourth quarter, the sales volume of pure trains in the fourth quarter was 52,6409 units, while Tesla's car delivery volume in the fourth quarter of 2023 was 48,4507 units, which means that BYD Q4 officially surpassed Testis beyond Testis.It has become the world's largest pure electric vehicle manufacturer, which also marks China's emerging strength in the global electric vehicle market.